USD eases as peace talks continue and the RBA interest rate decision is due
AUD/USD => The pair rises above 0.75
Bitcoin => The cryptocurrency looks towards a 2022 high
EUR/USD => The pair falls below 1.11
AUD/USD looks to the RBA rate decision
AUD/USD has extended its gains from the January 2022 low of 0.6970, retaking the 50 & 200 sma.
The price consolidates after the strong rise, creating a bull flag pattern, which can come before further gains. A break above the upside resistance could prompt the pair to climb above 0.7540 and fresh 2022 highs. Resistance can be seen at 0.7560, the October ’21 high, ahead of the 0.76 round number.
On the downside, a break below the flag support at 0.7440 could see sellers test 0.7420, the November ’21 high, and 0.7315, the January high.
| US core PCE
US non-farm payroll |
Actual: 5.4% (0.2%)
Expected: 490k (9k) |
Previous: 5.2%
Previous: 481k |
Where next for AUD/USD?
AUD/USD has extended its gains from the January 2022 low of 0.6970, retaking the 50 & 200 sma.
The price consolidates after the strong rise, creating a bull flag pattern, which can come before further gains. A break above the upside resistance could prompt the pair to climb above 0.7540 and fresh 2022 highs.
Resistance can be seen at 0.7560, the October ’21 high, ahead of the 0.76 round number. On the downside, a break below the flag support at 0.7440 could see sellers test 0.7420, the November ’21 high, and 0.7315, the January high.
Bitcoin holds over 45K
Bitcoin continued to hold over 45K, a key resistance across 2022 until the price peaked last week.
The cryptocurrency had been trading within its tightest trading range in months until last week. However, now is looking towards the 2022 high of 48200 and a vital threshold of the 200-day moving average, at 48300 ahead of the psychological level at 50,000.
The price last traded above the 200 DMA back in December.
Interestingly, it would seem that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly aligned with stocks, with Bitcoin’s March rally coinciding with a 6% run-up in the S&P500. Bitcoin is still down some 30% from its all-time high but up 45% from its January low.
EUR/USD awaits Eurozone investor sentiment & US factory orders
EUR/USD rose 0.6% across the previous week as optimism surrounding Russia’s peace talks lifted the euro while eurozone inflation rose to a record higher.
Higher energy, food, and fuel prices boosted consumer prices to almost four times the ECB’s 2% target, prompting bets that the ECB will adopt a more hawkish stance and possibly raise interest rates sooner rather than later.
The minutes of the March ECB meeting is due to be released later in the week. Meanwhile, despite solid US data, the USD fell modestly lower across the board last week.
The non-farm payroll showed that the jobs market continued to tighten in March, with unemployment dropping to 3.6% and wages jumping ahead of forecast to 5.5%. In addition to Eurozone investor sentiment, war headlines are likely to drive the pair today in the European session, with US factory orders due later in the day.
| EZ inflation YoY March
US non-farm payroll US factory orders |
Actual: 0.3% (0.2%)
Actual: 431k% (319k) Expected: -0.6% (2%) |
Previous: 0.5%
Previous: 750k Previous: 1.4% |
Support can be found at 1.10 (round number) and 1.0950 (last week’s low).
Resistance for the pair can be seen at 1.1120 (18 March high) and 1.1170 (50 sma)
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