US inflation in focus and oil major Exxon reports earnings
Gold => The precious metal rises above $1900
BTC/USD => The crypto rises towards 40k
Exxon Mobile => The stock trades 34% higher this year
Gold set for worst month in seven
Yesterday Gold managed to finish mildly higher following dismal US GDP data.
The US economy contracted for the first time since 2020. The shock contraction pulled the USD off 5-year highs, lifting the precious metal. Even so, Gold prices trade -2% so far this week after falling 2.2% across last week.
The precious metal has come under pressure amid the surging value of the US dollar. A stronger USD makes gold more expensive for buyers with foreign currencies, hitting demand. Attention will now turn to US PCE inflation data, the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation.
Hot inflation could fuel hawkish Fed bets, lifting the USD and dragging on Gold.
| U.S. GDP Q1 annualized
US Core PCE YoY March |
Actual: -1.4% (8.3%)
Expected:5.3% (0.1%) |
Previous: 6.9%
Previous: 5.4% |
Where next for Gold price
The gold price ran into resistance at the psychological level $2000 before trending lower, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows.
The price fell below the 50 & 100 sma. The 50 sma also dropped below the 100 sma in a bearish signal. The price found support at 1873, tipping the RSI into oversold territory, so this level is likely to act as the near-term floor.
Sellers will need to break below here in order to open the door to 1852 the mid-February low.
On the flip side, buyers will be encouraged by the move back over 1890 and round number 1900.
The next resistance level can be seen at 1911 April 26 high to create a higher high towards 1916 and expose the 50 sma.
Bitcoin heads towards 40k
Bitcoin has traded relatively range bound once again this week.
The price edged lower to a multi-month low of $37,700 as the stock market also experienced a selloff due to concerns over the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates aggressively over the coming months. The $37k level has become ain important support with a break below here opening the door to a deeper selloff towards 30k.
However, the current price action sees the cryptocurrency advance 4% over the last two sessions in recovery. Near term resistance can be seen at 40k the psychological level, followed by 50 sma at 41000 to expose the 100 sma at 42k.
A break above here could help BTCUSD head towards 45k and out of the range that it has traded within across most of the year
Exxon Mobile earnings preview
Exxon Mobile is set to release its Q1 earnings which are expected to be strong.
Exxon Mobile does not hedge or lock-in sales so earnings tend to mirror changes in energy prices. Oil prices rallied 30% across the first three months of the year as demand ramped up after COVID and then following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Wall Street is expecting to see EPS rise to $2.24 up from $0.65 compared to the same period a year earlier. Exxon Mobile is expected to be flush with cash which will bring the question of buybacks back into focus.
The stock trades up 34% so far this year and trades 7% off its all-time high.
Support can be found at 82.75 (50 sma) and 79.60 (April low).
Resistance for the stock can be seen at 89.80 (April 21 high) and 91.51 (all-time high).
