Stocks edge lower as oil rises

Oil => The index rises above $109

BTC/USD => The cryptocurrency falls to 20,800

EUR/USD => The pair falls away from 1.06


Oil rises ahead of API data.

Oil prices rose $2 per barrel in the previous session on the prospect of tighter supply, as the G7 pledged to put further restrictions on Moscow. The G7 group discussed implementing a cap on the sale and purchase of Russian oil as part of the new sanctions. The move comes ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, which is due later in the week. The group is not expected to increase output again this month after agreeing to raise production from 432,000 bpd to 648,000 for July and September. Today oil prices are rising further as the prospect of tight supply overshadows recession fears. API stockpile data is due later.

Where next for the oil price?

Oil rebounded off 101.40 on June 22, recapturing the 100sma, which, combined with the receding bearish bias on the MACD, keeps buyers hopeful of further gains. Buyers will need to retake the 50 sma at 109.00 to test resistance at 110.30, the June 2 low ahead of 116.10. On the downside, sellers will look to test the 50 sma at 105.00. It would take a move below 101.40 to create a lower low and continue the downward trend.

BTC/USD extends losses

After gaining 13% in the previous week, BTC/USD started this week on the back foot. The cryptocurrency, even as equities move higher in a rare decoupling. The crypto market sold off in risk-off trade, fuelled by fears of a more aggressive Federal Reserve. Last week as Fed bets eased, stocks rose, and Bitcoin rose, although it remained firmly within the trading range it had traded within the previous few weeks. Buyers will look for a move over 21800 to book a higher high. Meanwhile, sellers will look for a move below 19700 to bring 19700, 2022 low, into play.


EUR/USD falls ahead of German & US consumer confidence

EUR/USD rose 0.25% at the start of the week, briefly pushing to a two-week high of over 1.06 as the USD weakened. The euro gained ground on optimism as the ECB’s summit began ahead of an expected rate hike in July. US durable goods orders came ahead of forecasts, as did pending home sales, but the USD failed to benefit from the upbeat data. Meanwhile, the ECB started its annual conference with a speech from Christine Lagarde. Today the pair is falling as attention remains on the ECB yearly conference and with both German and US consumer confidence in focus, which is expected to decline as rising inflation takes its toll.

Ger. Consumer confidence

US consumer confidence

Expected: -27.7 (1.7)

Expected: -11 (2)

Previous: -26

Previous: -9

Support can be found at 1.0470 (yesterday’s low) and 1.0360 (June low).

Resistance for the pair can be seen at 1.06 (50 sma) and 1.0640 (May 5 high).


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