Recession fears ease, US jobs data in focus
| Dow Jones => The index rises to a 10-day high
BTC/USD => The crypto rises to 22k EUR/CAD => The pair falls to a 7-year low |
Dow Jones looks to the non-farm payroll
The Dow Jones rose 0.9% in the previous session as investors digested the Fed minutes and turned their attention to the US non-farm payroll. The Dow Jones has risen for four straight sessions and is on track to gain 0.7% across the week. Data has been relatively strong, calming fears of a recession. Credit and debit card data showed that consumer spending remains resilient. Earlier in the week, the services PMI was also stronger than forecast, and JOLTS job openings revealed that there were two jobs for every unemployed person. Today the Dow futures head lower as attention turns to the US nonfarm payroll, which is expected to show that the jobs market remains strong. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.6%
| US Non-farm payroll | Expected: 270k (120k) | Previous: 390k |
Where next for Dow Jones?
The Dow Jones extended its recovery from 29650, the June low, rising above the 20 sma and retaking resistance at 31250, the May 12 low. However, buyers need to increase over 31830 the 50 sma and the June 28 high to create a higher high, bringing 32225 into play. On the flip side, failure to hold above 31250 support could see the index fall back to test its 20 sma at 30800 and 30400, the July 4 low ahead of 30000 the psychological level.
BTC/USD rises to a 3-week high
BTC/USD has had a solid few days, climbing 7.2% over the past 24 hours, taking the price over 22k to a three-week high. The move higher in the crypto market came alongside gains in the equity market, with the Nasdaq rising over 4% across the week as risk sentiment improved. The price had moved below its 200-week moving average for the fourth time in its history. However, with this week’s rise, the price is testing resistance at the 200-week sma. A rise above this level could see the bulls gain traction towards 23k.
EUR/CAD trades at a seven-year low ahead of Canadian jobs data
EUR/CAD fell 0.75% yesterday, marking the fifth straight day of declines. The Euro came under pressure as recession fears rose and amid growing concerns over energy security for the region. The minutes of the latest ECB meeting showed that the policymakers were concerned over the inflation outlook and could consider larger rate hikes going forwards. The ECB is expected hikes rates by 25 basis points in June. Meanwhile, the CAD rose, tracing oil prices higher. Oil rose 3.5% amid concerns over tight supply as the Russian court banned the use of the Caspian pipeline, which could result in Europe losing 1 million barrels a day. Today the pair is rising as attention now turns to Canadian jobs data, which is expected to show that the labour market remains tight with unemployment at a record low. The data will be one of the last key releases ahead of the BoC rate decision next week,
| Cad. unemployment | Expected: 5.1% (0.6) | Previous: 5.1% |
Support can be found at 1.31 (round number) and 1.3025 (April ’15 low).
Resistance for the pair can be seen at 1.33 (round number) and 1.3404 (May & June low).
