Eurozone investor confidence in focus in an otherwise quiet day￼
EUR/USD => The pair holds below 0.9750
BTC/USD => The cryptocurrency slips 20k
Oil => The commodity holds over 90.00
EUR/USD steady ahead of investor confidence data
EUR/USD fell 0.5% on Friday, its third straight day of declines, after stronger-than-expected US jobs data and disappointing German numbers. The US non-farm payroll saw job creation rise by more than expected in September, and unemployment unexpectedly fall to 3.5% fueling bets of a more aggressive Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, German retail sales and industrial production highlighted the worsening economic picture in the eurozone’s largest economy. German industrial production fell by the most since March, and retail sales tumbled as consumers reined in spending as energy bills and prices surged. Today attention turns to the eurozone investor sentiment data, which is forecast to improve very slightly and could help support the common currency.
|US NFP September|
EZ investor sentiment
|Actual: 263k (52k)|
Expected: -30.8 (1)
Where next for EUR/USD?
EUR/USD ran into resistance at 1.00, just below the 50 sma, and has fallen through the 20 sma and falling trendline support. The RSI supports further downside. Immediate support can be seen at 0.97 round number, with a break below here bringing 0.9550 the 2022 low back into view. On the flip side, buyers will look for a move back above 0.9795 the falling trendline support turned resistance, ahead of 0.9850 the 20 sma. It would take a move over 1.00 to create a higher high.
BTC/USD holds steady in a typically strong month
BTC/USD, along with other cryptocurrencies, are trading relatively flat as they continue a rather uninspired start to October, a month that is typically a strong month for the space. BTC/USD failed to push over 20,500 last week, which prompted a small correction. ETH/USD also trades flat around 1300, as it continues to move in line with bitcoin since the merger. A lack of volatility continues to plague the market. However, this could change as attention shifts to US inflation data due on Tuesday, which is expected to be 8.1% YoY. Hot inflation, combined with Friday’s strong jobs report could fuel hawkish Fed bets and keep pressure on BTCUSD.
Oil holds last week’s 16% gains
Oil prices jumped 5% on Friday and rose 16% across last week after OPEC+ agreed to cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day in the largest output cut since the pandemic. The move sent oil prices to a 5-week high and was the largest weekly jump since March. Several investment banks upwardly revised their oil price forecast, with UBS and PVM saying that oil could return to $100 per barrel. The cut by OPEC+ comes ahead of the EU embargo on Russian oil, which is expected to squeeze supply further. High oil prices could continue to fuel inflation fears.
Support can be found at 90.00 (round number) and 87.70 (20 sma).
Resistance for the pair can be seen at 92.88 (last week’s high) and 97.300 (August high).