All eyes on the US NFP
Gold => The commodity holds over 1700
BTC/USD => The cryptocurrency holds over 20k
Dax => The index falls below 12500
Will US jobs data drag gold lower?
Gold closed 0.2% lower on Thursday at 1712, its second straight day of losses as investors digested higher-than-expected US jobless claims, hawkish Fed commentary, and as US non-farm payrolls came into the target. The Fed’s Kashkari said that the Fed was still quite a way away from pausing interest rates, dampening hopes of any dovish pivot from the Fed. Attention will now shift to the US non-farm payroll, which is expected to show that the US labour market remained strong in September. Expectations are for headline job creation of 250k after 315k in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7% after unexpectedly rising last month as the participation rate increased. Another strong payroll report could fuel bets of an aggressive Fed which could pull non-yielding gold lower.
Where next for gold?
Gold has extended its rebound from 1614, retaking the 20 sma before running into resistance at the 50 sma and falling trendline resistance. The RSI is in bullish territory, so it points to further upside. Buyers will look for a move over 1730, the weekly high, and 50 sma. A break above here opens the door to 1760, the late August high and 1800 round number. Failure to retake the 50 sma could see sellers will look for a move below 1678, the 20 sma, and 1660, the September 15 low.
BTC/USD rises despite rising inflationary pressures
BTC/USD is hovering around 20k, giving up earlier gains as investors continue to digest the latest US economic data and Fed speak and look ahead to the US NFP later in the day. US Fed Governor Christopher Wallar noted strength in the jobs data, creating some wariness. Robust data could raise hawkish Fed bets, although Bitcoin has been surprisingly resilient to hawkish fears this week.
In crypto news, lender Celsius CEL has fallen 18% after former top management took out $17 million before filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
DAX looks to German retail sales
The DAX closed lower for a second straight session on Thursday after German factory orders and eurozone retail sales fell more than expected. German industry orders fell sharply amid a fall in orders from the eurozone, where companies face soaring energy prices and high inflation. Meanwhile, eurozone retail sales also fell as higher inflation reduced households’ spending power. Looking ahead, attention turns to German industrial production and retail sales, which are expected to fall -0.5% MoM and -1%, respectively, highlighting the growing struggles that the economy faces. Weak data could drag the DAX lower.
Support can be found at 12000 (round number) and 11800 (2022).
Resistance for the pair can be seen at 12650 (weekly high) and 13000 (50 sma).